Indonesia Forecasts Rice Deficit, Plans 2.44 Million Ton Import in 2024

Indonesia's government has assured that rice stocks are adequate, with plans to speed up availability in modern retail outlets. This follows reported scarcities of five-kilogram sacks at retail outlets since around September last year, leading to sale restrictions. As of mid-February, rice prices have increased by 1.65%. Data from the agriculture ministry indicates a rice deficit of 1.63 million tonnes in January and 1.15 million tonnes in February.

The National Food Agency (NFA) stated that Indonesia plans to import 2.44 million tonnes of rice in 2024, including a carryover quota of around 445,000 tonnes from 2023. There are concerns about high-risk flooding in planting areas during January and February, potentially delaying harvesting.

Indonesia aims to import 200,000 metric tonnes of rice from Thailand through a government-to-government arrangement and has already contracted 500,000 metric tonnes from Vietnam, Myanmar, and Pakistan. The country has a 2 million tonne rice import quota for this year, with a quarter expected to arrive by March. In 2023, Indonesia imported 3.06 million tonnes of rice.

The initial forecast for Indonesia's 2024 rice output was 32 million metric tonnes. However, officials expect rice output in January and February to drop 46% year-on-year to 2.25 million tonnes. Disruptions in output last year were due to the dry El Nino weather pattern, but recovery is expected this year, with the BMKG forecasting El Nino to remain in early 2024 and gradually neutralize by April. President Joko Widodo announced commitments from India and Thailand to support rice supply for 2024.