The Thai Rice Exporters Association reports several challenges for Thailand's rice exports this year, including exchange rate volatility, competitive pressures, and the El Niño weather phenomenon. According to the US Department of Agriculture, global milled rice production is expected to remain stable at 513 million tonnes, with China and India being the largest producers at 144 million and 132 million tonnes, respectively. Thailand's production is anticipated to be around 20 million tonnes. Thailand's rice export forecast for this year is around 7.5 million tonnes, valued at 150 billion baht, a decrease from last year's 8.7 million tonnes valued at 178 billion baht. In 2023, Vietnam's rice exports exceeded 8.1 million tonnes, while Thailand exported 16.5 million tonnes, maintaining its position as the world's second-largest rice exporter.
Thailand's government-to-government (G-to-G) rice deals are becoming more challenging, with countries changing their purchasing methods to favor private entities. The G-to-G process in Thailand takes over two months, involving several government bodies, compared to the quicker decision-making in the private sector. Other risks to Thai rice exports include exchange rate fluctuations and potential changes in India's rice export restrictions. In the first month of 2024, Thailand exported over 1 million tonnes of rice, a 44% increase year-on-year. Key areas of focus for the government include exchange rate stability, development of competitive rice varieties, and addressing transportation costs, which have seen shipping freight rates increase to $4,000-$6,000 per container to Europe and the US.