The upcoming Chinese New Year on February 10 is not expected to boost meat demand, particularly pork, as oversupply issues persist in the country. Slaughter pig prices have fallen once again at the beginning of the year due to the abundant livestock supply, making it difficult for pig farmers to cover production costs. Market analysts predict that the ongoing depressed demand for meat among the Chinese population will continue to contribute to a decline in slaughter pig prices. Recent data indicates that prices fell below the national average, reaching CNY 13.80/kg (EUR 1.76), almost 10% lower than the already modest price level in early January 2023.
The challenging situation is reflected in the fact that the income generated by slaughter pigs in China is comparable to that in Spain or Germany. Both small-scale pig farmers and large trading companies are experiencing financial losses as the current pig prices do not offset production expenses. The Ministry of Agriculture reports a continuous decrease in the sow population, which stood at 41.58 million animals in November 2023, a 5.2% decrease from the previous year. Despite the decline in sow numbers, increased productivity and the ongoing rebuilding of the breeding sow population have sustained a high supply of fattened pigs for slaughter. This oversupply is also impacting China's pork import demand, which decreased by 6.3% to 1.46 million tons from January to November 2023 compared to the same period the previous year.