Turmeric prices in India's futures market have recently declined from highs of nearly ₹20,000 per quintal to about ₹16,500-17,000, influenced by market adjustments and new crop arrivals. Despite this dip, industry experts predict a recovery in prices post-July, with a potential stabilization and subsequent increase expected after September. The decrease in production across key growing states like Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Maharashtra, which have seen at least a 20% drop, has contributed to the initial price surge, setting the stage for future market dynamics.
New crop arrivals in markets like Nanded, Nizamabad, and Erode have been substantial, but the overall production is lower this year, impacting prices. The export demand for turmeric remains steady despite a slight decrease in January exports due to high prices. Domestic demand has experienced some decline, attributed to the high market prices leading to demand destruction, with stockists hedging positions to capitalize on the price volatility. As the Ramadan period concludes, current demand is tapering off, affecting market prices.
Looking forward, the turmeric market is expected to remain bullish towards the latter part of the year, driven by lower ending stocks and a significant drop in the stock to use ratio. Anticipated favorable weather conditions and potential increase in crop area due to encouraging prices this season might boost production next year. High-quality seed demand and prices have risen sharply, reflecting expectations of increased sowing activity, with sowing set to commence in mid-May depending on weather conditions.