Thailand expects a 14.4% decline in rice exports in 2024, with projections indicating they will export 7.5 million tonnes of rice. This decrease is attributed to lower production and heightened competition in the global market. Rice production is anticipated to drop by 5.9% due to the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon. Thailand, the world's second-largest rice exporter after India, faces challenges driven by increased global supply and reduced imports from trade partners. Despite the overall decline, rice exports saw a notable 44% year-on-year increase in January, totaling 1.12 million tonnes.
Factors contributing to the reduced demand for Thai rice include Indonesia's large stockpile, potentially leading to decreased purchases, and the possibility of India lifting its export ban on certain rice varieties. In 2023, Thailand's rice exports exceeded expectations, rising by 13.6% to reach 8.76 million tonnes, surpassing the targeted 8 million tonnes. This contributed to a 28.4% increase in the value of rice exports for the year, although they constituted 1.8% of the country's total exports in terms of value.
