The Philippines' rice supply is expected to remain sufficient in the first half of the year, despite elevated prices due to the El Niño weather pattern. Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. has assured the public of adequate rice supply from local production and imports. However, rice prices may stay high until September, partly due to the impact of El Niño on the global rice supply, which has increased demand and international prices.
The Philippine Statistics Authority has identified rice as a major risk factor in inflation. National Statistician Dennis Mapa noted that rice, which constitutes 8.87% of the consumer basket used to measure headline inflation, has seen a double-digit price increase compared to last year. This increase in rice prices has a significant impact on the inflation rate. In January, headline inflation in the Philippines eased to 2.8%, the lowest since October 2020.
The Philippines imported 750,000 metric tons (MT) of rice in December 2023 and January 2024. A five-year rice trade agreement with Vietnam ensures an annual supply of 1.5 to 2 million MT of white rice to the Philippines. Additionally, India has committed to providing the Philippines with extra rice supply despite an import ban on non-basmati rice. The Agriculture Department plans to strengthen coordination with the Department of Trade and Industry and law enforcement agencies to monitor rice price surges in the market.