The optimism among local shippers for sustained high prices of Thai rice in the first half of the year is linked to India's maintenance of its ban on white rice exports. Chookiat Ophaswongse, the honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, projects global market prices to linger around $600 per tonne, the highest in over a decade, fueled by robust demand from various countries.
The primary rice-exporting nations in Asia are Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan. Mr. Chookiat anticipates a continuation of Indonesia's rice imports this year, albeit potentially at a reduced quantity compared to the previous year's nearly 4 million tonnes from various sources, including Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Myanmar.
Rice exports for the previous year are estimated to have reached 8.8-8.9 million tonnes, surpassing the initial projection of 8.5 million tonnes, with an estimated value of 180 billion baht due to increasing prices. November 2022 witnessed a significant surge in rice exports, reaching 1 million tonnes valued at 23.0 billion baht, attributed to heightened shipments of white and hom mali fragrant rice.
The association predicts that the rice export volume for the last month was approximately 900,000 tonnes, driven by exporter commitments and substantial demand from key importers in Asia and major markets in Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas. Despite this, Thailand's rice supply remains sufficient and competitively priced, making it the preferred choice for importers.
As of December 27, 2023, the price of Thai white rice 5% was quoted at $659 per tonne, with prices from Vietnam and Pakistan ranging from $653-657 and $593-597 per tonne, respectively. The price of Thai parboiled rice was $659 per tonne, while prices for parboiled rice from India and Pakistan were in the range of $513-517 and $546-550 per tonne.
The association forecasts Thailand to ship around 7.5 million tonnes this year, contingent on India potentially allowing rice exports in the second half. However, the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon on global rice production will be closely monitored throughout the year. According to the Customs Department's latest data, Thailand exported 7.95 million tonnes of rice valued at 160 billion baht ($4.61 billion) in the first 11 months of 2023, reflecting a 14.7% increase in volume and a 28.9% uptick in value year-on-year.