The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (Vasep) anticipates a modest recovery in Vietnam's seafood exports during the first half of 2024, following the challenges faced in 2023 due to uncertain market demand and global economic difficulties. Despite achieving 92% of the 2023 target with a turnover of 9.2 billion USD, the seafood industry is cautiously setting a target of 9.5 billion USD for 2024, reflecting a 3% increase.
Vasep notes that the world economy is still grappling with various challenges such as slow recovery, high interest rates, and geopolitical issues like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East conflicts, impacting global trade, including the seafood market. Potential consequences include heightened transportation costs and increased input prices for aquaculture and seafood processing, potentially leading to a new inflationary period.
Consumer demand for seafood is expected to recover, with a focus on lower-priced segments like canned fish, raw fish for processing, dried fish, and dried shrimp. However, price reductions for many aquatic species may persist until the end of the first half of 2024.
Vietnamese shrimp is expected to face competition with Ecuador and India in terms of price and supply, with both countries aiming to increase market share in the US, China, EU, and Japan. The IUU yellow card remains a challenge for seafood exports, particularly impacting industries such as tuna, squid, octopus, and marine fish.
Despite challenges, pangasius exports are optimistic as inventories in the US, China, and EU have decreased significantly. Pangasius export prices are expected to rise, and the trend of importing deeply processed, value-added pangasius and by-products is on the upswing.
Vasep forecasts a gradual recovery and positive outlook for Vietnam's seafood exports in the second half of 2024. With market adjustments and adaptation by businesses, seafood export turnover is expected to reach 9.5-10 billion USD in 2024. The shrimp industry aims for 4 billion USD, pangasius around 1.9 billion USD, and other seafood products forecasted to earn about 3.6-3.8 billion USD.