Russian wheat export prices have seen a continuous rise over the past three weeks, influenced by concerns over weather conditions affecting the upcoming crop. The price for 12.5% protein Russian wheat for delivery in late April to early May increased to $208 per metric ton, marking a $3.5 hike from the previous week, as reported by IKAR agriculture consultancy. Similarly, Sovecon agriculture consultancy observed a rise in prices for the same wheat category, estimating it between $205 and $208 per ton FOB, up from $202 to $205 the week before.
The volume of Russian grain exports has decreased, with 1.02 million tons shipped last week, a reduction from 1.27 million tons the week prior. Specifically, wheat exports fell to 0.84 million tons from 1.14 million tons. Despite this decline, Sovecon adjusted its March wheat export forecast slightly downwards to 4.9 million tons, which is still record-high for March and an increase from 4.8 million tons exported in the same period the previous year.
The rise in wheat prices and adjustments in export forecasts are partially attributed to adverse weather conditions in key Russian growing regions. Sovecon highlighted concerns about the southern parts of Russia, particularly the Rostov and Krasnodar areas, which are major wheat-producing regions. These areas are expected to experience drier than average conditions, raising concerns about the potential impact on the new wheat crop's health and yield.