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Sugar Landscape Shift: Assessing Factors Influencing India's 2023-24 Production Season

In the ongoing sugar season, spanning from October 1, 2023, to January 15, the country's sugar production has reached 14.87 million tonnes, marking a 7% decline according to reports from the cooperative sector sugar mills. Despite a consistent sugar recovery rate compared to the previous year, the actual sugar output hinges on the quantity of sugarcane processed. The government has undertaken various initiatives to address the challenges posed by lower sugarcane output estimates from the agriculture ministry.

A noteworthy shift has been observed due to the ban on using sugarcane juice for ethanol and an increased rate for ethanol production from C-heavy molasses. This has led to a diversion of more sugarcane towards sugar production, resulting in a 9% decrease in sugar production until December 15. Ravi Gupta, an executive committee member of the West Indian Sugar Mills Association (WISMA), contends that sugar production exceeds estimates in Maharashtra and Karnataka. He advocates for a robust continuation of the ethanol program to avoid a surplus of sugar, especially in light of Brazil's escalating sugar production.

The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) data reveals that 509 factories are currently operational, a slight decrease from 511 by December 31. Jaiprakash Dandegaonkar, President of NFCSF, anticipates the country's sugar production to reach at least 30.55 million tonnes by the season's end. State-wise, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka play key roles, with expected sugar outputs of 11.5 million tonnes, 9 million tonnes, and 4.2 million tonnes, respectively.
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